Well, the final Major Championship of 2019 is upon us. The Open Championship at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. While it’s definitely weird that the Open Championship is last in the schedule this year, it hopefully won’t be anything short of exciting. And whether or not you’ll be waking up super early in the morning to watch, here are my picks for the oldest Championship in golf, the 2019 Open Championship!
Front Runners (< 20/1) – Rory McIlroy (10/1)
Yeah, let’s hear it. “Rory surprisingly doesn’t play well in windy/bad conditions.” “Rory can’t close tournaments anymore.” “Rory can’t putt.” Go ahead. Throw them all at me. Here’s the thing – while he hasn’t broken through in a major since 2014, his game has been in a good place. Rors leads the Tour in Top 10s this year. He’s one of the best drivers of the golf ball (if not the best) on Tour. His putting needs help, but the rest of his game looks great. He’s got top 10s in the last two majors, a T-21 at the Masters, and the dominating performance at the Canadian Open.
He also has the course record at Portrush with a 61 in 2015, although that’s not the driving force behind why I’m picking him. His length off of the tee should give him a big advantage in links golf at Portrush, and if his short game is firing, he’s going to be in the hunt on Sunday. It’s always hard to pick against Brooks these days, but I’m going with a European to win Europe’s biggest tournament of the year.
Alternate Pick – Brooks Koepka (10/1): Arguably the best player in the World in Major Championships the last three years. And by arguably, I mean he is. While I don’t think he’s going to check off box three of four for the career Grand Slam this week, it definitely wouldn’t surprise me if he did. His best finish at an Open Championship? T-6 in 2017.
Middle of the Pack (21/1 – 49/1) – Adam Scott (30/1)
Another Major Championship, another 30/1 odds for Adam Scott. I picked him as my alternate pick in this category for the US Open, and I’m picking him here at the Open Championship with this line. Why? It’s probably the best pick for a good pay day. He’s made the last nine cuts at The Open, with seven of those being Top-25s. He’s also got four top 10s, and three top 5s in that span, including his heartbreaking collapse at St. Andrews in 2012 where he finished runner up. He’s finally figured out his putting (for the most part), and his ball striking has been good. 9th in strokes gained on approaches to the green, 4th in strokes gained around the green, and 3rd in total strokes gained this season. Again, at 30/1, he’s the best bang-for-your-buck pick in the field.
Alternate Pick – Patrick Cantlay (25/1): Cantlay might be the slowest guy on Tour, but he’s a damn good player, and I love him (here’s a big reason why). He’s also leading the Tour in scoring average. He’s 3rd in top 10s this year, including a win at the Memorial. Cantlay finished T-3 at the PGA Championship and is also Top 15 in every strokes gained category except putting where he’s 27th. His all around game is great, and Portrush could be his first Major breakthrough.*
*disclaimer: at the time of writing this, Cantlay was 25/1. He’s now down to 18/1 – oh well.
Longshots (> 50/1) -Chez Reavie (250/1) and Byeong Hun An (175/1)
But wait, Reavie missed the cut in both of his Open Championship starts?! Yeah, I know. But the 2019 Chez Reavie is not the same Chez Reavie we’ve seen before. He grabbed a win this year at the Traveler’s, and was T-3 at the US Open, T-14 at the PGA Championship. He’s top 15 in strokes gained – Approach to the Green and top 10 in par-4 Scoring Average. Why is this important? There’s a ton of long par 4s at Royal Portrush. I expect Reavie to have another strong Major Championship performance in Northern Ireland. He might not win the thing, but he can be a good, cheap addition to your fantasy golf team.
Ben An might be another odd pick to some, but I’m sticking to my guns on the Strokes Gained Approach to Green and Strokes Gained Around the Green. An is 2nd around the greens and 38th in approach. At 175/1 odds with those stats and an overall 38th in Total strokes gained? I’ll take him at 175/1 for a long shot at a big pay day.
Odds to win 2019 U.S. Open (6/13/19)
Dustin Johnson 17/2
Brooks Koepka 10/1
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Tiger Woods 10/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Patrick Cantlay 18/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
Xander Schauffele 25/1
Jason Day 28/1
Justin Thomas 28/1
Adam Scott 30/1
Jon Rahm 30/1
Justin Rose 30/1
Phil Mickelson 30/1
Brandt Snedeker 35/1
Francesco Molinari 35/1
Hideki Matsuyama 35/1
Matt Kuchar 35/1
Tommy Fleetwood 35/1
Webb Simpson 40/1
Bryson DeChambeau 50/1
Tony Finau 50/1
Paul Casey 55/1
Henrik Stenson 60/1
Shane Lowry 65/1
Gary Woodland 70/1
Marc Leishman 75/1
Graeme McDowell 80/1
Sergio Garcia 80/1
Kevin Na 90/1
Patrick Reed 90/1
Louis Oosthuizen 95/1
Martin Kaymer 100/1
Matt Wallace 100/1
Ian Poulter 120/1
Billy Horschel 125/1
Branden Grace 125/1
Bubba Watson 125/1
Jim Furyk 125/1
Kevin Kisner 125/1
Lucas Glover 125/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 125/1
Tyrrell Hatton 125/1
Emiliano Grillo 150/1
Jimmy Walker 150/1
Keegan Bradley 150/1
Scott Piercy 150/1
Byeong-Hun An 175/1
Charles Howell III 175/1
Daniel Berger 175/1
Danny Willett 175/1
Erik Van Rooyen 175/1
Haotong Li 175/1
Jason Dufner 175/1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 175/1
Rory Sabbatini 175/1
Si Woo Kim 175/1
Aaron Wise 200/1
Alex Noren 200/1
Cameron Smith 200/1
Luke List 200/1
Thomas Pieters 200/1
Zach Johnson 200/1
C.T. Pan 225/1
Keith Mitchell 225/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 225/1
Abraham Ancer 250/1
Andrew Putnam 250/1
Bernd Wiesberger 250/1
Chez Reavie 250/1
J.B. Holmes 250/1
Jhonattan Vegas 250/1
Joel Dahmen 250/1
Kyle Stanley 250/1
Lucas Bjerregaard 250/1
Scottie Scheffler 250/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 250/1
Justin Harding 275/1
Matthew Jones 300/1
Viktor Hovland 300/1
Aaron Baddeley 350/1
Luke Donald 350/1
Harris English 400/1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 400/1
Nick Taylor 400/1
Adri Arnaus 500/1
Anirban Lahiri 500/1
Brian Stuard 500/1
Chesson Hadley 500/1
Collin Morikawa 500/1
Dean Burmester 500/1
Luke Guthrie 500/1
Marcus Kinhult 500/1
Oliver Schniederjans 500/1
Ryan Fox 500/1
Sam Horsfield 500/1
Shugo Imahira 500/1
Chan Kim 600/1
Ernie Els 600/1
Nathan Lashley 600/1
Roberto Castro 600/1
Patton Kizzire 700/1
Alex Prugh 750/1
Andreas Halvorsen 750/1
Andy Pope 750/1
Austin Eckroat 750/1
Billy Hurley Iii 750/1
Brandon Wu 750/1
Brendon Todd 750/1
Brett Drewitt 750/1
Brian Davis 750/1
Callum Tarren 750/1
Cameron Young 750/1
Carlos Ortiz 750/1
Chandler Eaton 750/1
Charlie Danielson 750/1
Chip McDaniel 750/1
Chun An Yu 750/1
Clement Sordet 750/1
Connor Arendell 750/1
Daniel Hillier 750/1
David Toms 750/1
Devon Bling 750/1
Joseph Bramlett 750/1
Nick Hardy 750/1
Rob Oppenheim 750/1
Sam Saunders 750/1
Sepp Straka 750/1
Tom Hoge 750/1
Zac Blair 750/1
Cody Gribble 850/1
Jovan Rebula 1000/1
Julian Etulain 1000/1
Justin Walters 1000/1
Kevin OConnell 1000/1
Lee Slattery 1000/1
Luis Gagne 1000/1
Marcus Fraser 1000/1
Matt Parziale 1000/1
Matthieu Pavon 1000/1
Michael Thorbjornsen 1000/1
Mike Weir 1000/1
Mikimu Horikawa 1000/1
Renato Paratore 1000/1
Rhys Enoch 1000/1
Richard Lee 1000/1
Stewart Hagestad 1000/1
Kodai Ichihara 1250/1
Eric Dietrich 1500/1
Hayden Shieh 1500/1
Matthew Naumec 1500/1
Noah Norton 1500/1
Ryan Sullivan 1500/1
Spencer Tibbits 1500/1
